IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Murray St.
Ohio Valley
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	+4.5	#105
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	70.0	#140
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	+1.8	#129

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	+2.6	#97

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.7%	1.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	1.5%	2.3%	0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid	33.1%	37.9%	25.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	1.2%	1.9%	0.3%
Average Seed	12.6	12.3	13.5

.500 or above	96.8%	98.9%	93.2%
.500 or above in Conference	97.5%	98.7%	95.4%
Conference Champion	40.5%	45.9%	31.4%
Last Place in Conference	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%
First Round	32.7%	37.5%	24.6%
Second Round	7.2%	9.1%	3.9%
Sweet Sixteen	2.4%	3.0%	1.4%
Elite Eight	0.5%	0.7%	0.3%
Final Four	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 63.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 2	1 - 1	1 - 1
Quad 3	4 - 2	4 - 4
Quad 4	14 - 2	18 - 6

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Dec 02, 2020	193	@ Middle Tennessee	W	76-72	63%
Dec 08, 2020	133	@ Austin Peay	L	73-74	48%
Dec 15, 2020	302	Prairie View	W	81-65	92%
Dec 21, 2020	133	Austin Peay	W	77-71	69%
Dec 30, 2020	114	@ Belmont	L	74-77	40%
Jan 02, 2021	296	Morehead St.	W	79-64	91%
Jan 07, 2021	186	@ Eastern Illinois	W	75-72	61%
Jan 09, 2021	331	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	80-66	88%
Jan 14, 2021	325	@ Southeast Missouri St.	W	79-66	86%
Jan 16, 2021	324	@ Tennessee Martin	W	84-71	86%
Jan 21, 2021	255	Jacksonville St.	W	77-64	87%
Jan 23, 2021	304	Tennessee Tech	W	78-62	90%
Jan 28, 2021	269	Tennessee St.	W	79-65	87%
Jan 30, 2021	114	Belmont	W	77-74	62%
Feb 04, 2021	296	@ Morehead St.	W	76-67	77%
Feb 06, 2021	211	@ Eastern Kentucky	W	82-77	66%
Feb 11, 2021	325	Southeast Missouri St.	W	82-63	94%
Feb 13, 2021	324	Tennessee Martin	W	87-68	94%
Feb 18, 2021	186	Eastern Illinois	W	78-69	78%
Feb 20, 2021	331	SIU Edwardsville	W	83-63	95%
Feb 25, 2021	255	@ Jacksonville St.	W	74-67	72%
Feb 27, 2021	304	@ Tennessee Tech	W	75-65	79%
Projected Record						17 - 5	16 - 4

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st														0.0	0.2	1.4	4.9	9.9	11.6	9.1	3.4		40.5	1st
2nd													0.0	0.4	2.7	5.7	7.7	5.3	1.3	0.0			23.0	2nd
3rd											0.0	0.1	0.7	3.0	5.3	4.8	2.0	0.2					16.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.1	0.8	2.5	3.2	2.2	0.6	0.0						9.4	4th
5th										0.1	0.6	1.5	1.9	0.9	0.1								5.1	5th
6th									0.0	0.5	1.0	0.9	0.4	0.0									2.9	6th
7th								0.0	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.2	0.0										1.6	7th
8th						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.1												0.7	8th
9th					0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.0													0.3	9th
10th						0.0	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0													0.1	10th
11th					0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0															0.1	11th
12th				0.0	0.0	0.0																	0.0	12th

Total				0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.6	1.3	2.4	3.6	5.6	7.5	10.5	12.5	14.6	15.4	12.8	9.1	3.4			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	3.4		3.4
19-1	100.0%	9.1		8.7	0.4
18-2	90.3%	11.6		9.2	2.3	0.1
17-3	64.1%	9.9		5.8	3.6	0.4
16-4	33.8%	4.9		2.1	2.3	0.6	0.0
15-5	11.0%	1.4		0.4	0.6	0.3	0.1
14-6	2.2%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.0%	0.0			0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	40.5%	40.5		29.6	9.3	1.4	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	3.4%		86.1%	72.9%	13.2%	7.3		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.4	0.3	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.3	0.1	0.0			0.5		48.8%
19-1	9.1%		66.0%	62.5%	3.5%	11.4				0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.4	0.7	1.2	1.9	1.3	0.2	0.0		3.1		9.4%
18-2	12.8%		53.5%	53.1%	0.5%	12.7											0.1	0.4	2.2	3.1	1.0	0.1		6.0		1.0%
17-3	15.4%		42.6%	42.5%	0.0%	13.3												0.0	1.0	3.0	2.1	0.4	0.0	8.8		0.0%
16-4	14.6%		33.3%	33.3%		13.9													0.2	1.3	2.3	1.0	0.0	9.7
15-5	12.5%		23.7%	23.7%		14.4													0.0	0.3	1.3	1.1	0.2	9.6
14-6	10.5%		15.3%	15.3%		14.7														0.1	0.5	0.7	0.3	8.9
13-7	7.5%		9.8%	9.8%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.3	0.3	6.8
12-8	5.6%		7.2%	7.2%		15.5														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	5.2
11-9	3.6%		3.2%	3.2%		15.5															0.0	0.1	0.1	3.4
10-10	2.4%		1.7%	1.7%		15.8																0.0	0.0	2.4
9-11	1.3%		0.7%	0.7%		16.0																	0.0	1.3
8-12	0.6%																							0.6
7-13	0.4%																							0.4
6-14	0.1%																							0.1
5-15	0.1%																							0.1
4-16	0.0%																							0.0
3-17	0.0%																							0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%		33.1%	32.3%	0.8%	12.6		0.0	0.1	0.2	0.4	0.4	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.5	1.0	1.9	5.6	9.3	7.6	3.8	1.2	66.9		1.2%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	2.0%	100.0%	5.7	0.6	4.5	8.5	19.0	18.3	20.8	10.5	4.4	4.8	3.3	2.4	2.5	0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.5%	59.2%	10.8							1.9	1.9	8.7	7.6	16.7	20.1	2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.2%	50.8%	11.2									4.1	7.0	19.7	16.4	3.3	0.4